Comparing Estimates

February 5 2014 by Sasha Kozlov

Are people good at estimating big numbers? If you don’t know check out my math project where I surveyed 25 people (6th grade or older) on a question of the population of Russia. I need to write how much percent they were off. Then I need to write a paragraph about why I think people are estimating too high or too low. Let’s Begin!

Why I chose this project.

I chose this project because I like taking surveys and really like graphing data and this project allows it.

How did I find the percent people were off?

If a person guesses too high you need to subtract the estimate by the answer and then divide the difference by the answer. Then you got a decimal, you need to multiply the decimal by 100 to get a percent. When a person guesses too low you need to subtract the answer by the estimate and then divide the difference by the estimate. Then you got a decimal, you need to multiply the decimal by 100 to get a percent. If a person guesses 5% off or below he's correct.

Here is my Data:

That's my mom, she guessed 100,000,000
That's my aunt she guessed 165,000,000
That's my grandfather he guessed 125,000,000
That's Andrey he guessed 6,000,000
That's my dad he guessed 150,000,000

Concluding Paragraph

In my project 48% of the people guessed too low, 32% guessed too high and and 20% of the people were correct. 60% of the people that guessed the question correct were Russian. I think it is because I asked the population of Russia and probably Russians know it better. Most of the people guessed too low, I guess that's probably because people don't know Russia's actual size. I also found out that people who live between 30 and 40 years old never guessed over 45% too high or too low. From this data you can see that people that are between 30 and 40 years old were the most accurate guessers. However a teen guessed most accurately and the least accurately. Maybe if I would ask more people between 30 and 40 years old then they probably wouldn't all guess over 45% too high or too low.

Here you can see that Russia is much bigger than the other countries next to it.