Vietnam's Epic 2030 Plan
Professor N. Zhekov's Proposal
As 2030 approaches, Vietnam is being faced with diplomatic and economic issues. Starting in 2014, the long dispute between Vietnam and China over the South China seas has put tension into the relations of the two countries. China has started to look elsewhere for trading partners, and our economy, which greatly relies on China, has been ravaged. In addition to the lack of market for Vietnamese exports, investors worldwide have been avoiding our nation as they see it as one of the most corrupt in the world. Also, our lack of proper infrastructure has been impeding economic growth. What follows is further information on each issue.
In 2014, the South China sea began to be exploited by China and Vietnam . There was reason to believe that the sea bed surrounding the Paracel Islands was rich in oil reserves . These islands are somewhat within the 200 nautical mile range of the shores of both states . The aggression that the two countries have shown by disregarding this range has lead to the sinking of multiple ships. Also, the people of Vietnam have been in unrest due to the Chinese Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig being placed in waters that have been allegedly claimed by Hanoi, the Vietnamese capital. This unrest has lead to the burning of Chinese factories stationed in Vietnam. This rise in tensions between Vietnam and China is also part of the reason for our economic difficulties.
Vietnam's economic disparities have been mounting. With the conflict in the South Sea being a major catalyst, China has looked for a market elsewhere from which to purchase a lot of what we had previously had to obtain from China. As predicted back in 2014 when the economic growth rate tumbled from 5.4 percent to 4.2 percent , the Vietnamese economy has been faced with slowly deteriorating economy ever since. Another cause for this slow decline has been the cessation of economic aid from Japan. Japan had, in 2014, been accused of bribing multiple nations in order to secure it's Official Development Assistance (ODA) programs. Among the nations that it bribed was Vietnam, and when accusations were made, the Vietnam Railway general director and board chairman, Nguyen Huu Bang, was arrested. During the investigation, Japan ceased their economic assistance, and have not started it again since. The political corruption in Vietnam has long made investors hesitant when considering Vietnam as a potential base. Fifteen years ago, it was 66 percent of investors that considered Vietnam to have the most serious corruption than all other surveyed countries. Even after making improvements, this number has barely changed as investors remain prudent with their money. The infrastructure of Vietnam has been displaying disappointing performances, and has been coming up with below-par results. Poor energy infrastructure has been what has been damaging economic growth, and even still persists to do so. As mentioned previously, social unrest in Vietnam, back in 2014, had caused factories being burnt, and overall rioting to become widespread. This had increased the number of incarcerations that had taken place, which had decreased to workforce by a certain percentage. The is decrease in available labor had been another reason for the initial decline in the economy of Vietnam, as those imprisoned had to remain as such for a sentence, and a small portion of them were put to work, as the prisons are not the most efficient institutions we have. Poor power-plant efficiency, a low number of power-generating stations, high cost of infrastructure, a low number of investments and a decline in the workforce have been eating away at Vietnam's GDP, as their long-term effects still ripple into today.
Following the events of the Vietnam-China tensions, as well as the economic shortcomings of Vietnam, aid is needed to bring the situation and the economy under control. Vietnam would require UN peacekeepers to help settle the pernicious relationship between China and Vietnam. If the two states can be put on good terms, we would expect Vietnamese exports to increase to near 100 percent of what it once was. We would also like to diversify our trade partners, so that we wouldn't be as affected by rising tensions between us and any of our export destinations. In addition to that, monetary and economic aid would be necessary to force Vietnam out of the recession it is currently experiencing. The money we would be given we will use to improve our infrastructure so that the cost of living in Vietnam can be decreased. This decrease would put more money in the pockets of our citizens, which would lead to the increase in spending, and therefore increase the number of workers needed. If all of these measures are taken, we can expect the Vietnamese economy to become prosperous within 5 years, as predicted by our economists.
1. "Vietnam Boat Sinks after Collision." BBC News. BBC, 27 May 2014. Web. 08 June 2014.
2. "Vietnam Needs to Reduce Dependence on China: Economists." Thanh Nien Daily. N.p., 2 June 2014. Web. 08 June 2014.
3. "Japanese Bribery Probe Puts Vietnam Railways Ex-head in Custody." Thanh Nien Daily. N.p., 5 June 2014. Web. 08 June 2014.