Algeria 2030: A Nation In Dire Straits



The picture above does no justice to the true beauty of Algeria - The elegance of its sand swept dunes and beautiful, exotic oasis' have created a sight to behold even by the most seasoned of travellers. Lying on both the borders of the Mediterranean coast and Sahara desert, Algeria has become a relatively unknown beauty, but there is a reason for this. As the sand dissipates between your feet, you find yourself in a blood soaked field, filled with years of civil war and conflict. For as long as a nation stands, so shall its people, and with that notion in mind, Algeria's people have stood for a very long time, awaiting the help they so desperately need. The year is now 2030, and the Algerian people are plagued by frequent terrorist attacks, a dying economy and the collapse of the infrastructure all around them. Algeria presents the following issues and possible resolutions.

Civil Conflict and Terrorism

  By the time the Algerian Civil War had ended in February 2002, Algeria was in a state of disarray and anarchy. Lasting 11 years, the Civil War was a brutal clash between Government forces and multiple pro-Islamist insurgent groups. Reeling from the strife of battle, Algeria was prone to the advances of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, an Islamic militant group that has become increasingly active after the end of the Civil War. Changing their name to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in 2007, they began to rally more support, with their attacks becoming more and more aggressive and frequent. Major attacks launched by the AQIM include the kidnapping of 32 European tourists in February 2003, the triple suicide bombing on April 11, 2007 which killed more than 30 people and injured more than 150, and the attack on the Annaba petroleum plant on July 2024, which left 14 workers dead and 5 wounded. Now in 2030, the AQIM have grown significantly in power, to a force well above 2700 compared to their original strength of 800 in 2014. Links to many more different terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, Ansaru and the newly emerged Kigaidi have made the group increasingly transparent and adaptable. This is an issue that must be handled with immediately and with extreme prejudice.

In response to the actions of the AQIM, Algeria alongside Mali, Niger, and Mauritania created the Regional Command for Joint Counter Terrorism Operations (CEMOC), and established it in Tamanrasset, Algeria in April 2010. This joint task force however proved to  be ineffective due to two reasons: the border conflict between Algeria and Morocco over the Western Sahara and the fact that Algeria itself has refused to grant it's other CEMOC members the right to pursue AQIM members in their own territory. Today in 2030, not much has been accomplished other than the initial military strike in December 2010, which was a good twenty years ago. Thankfully, relations between Algeria and Morocco have strengthened due to the threat of imminent terrorist attacks. As a solution, we propose to abandon the Regional Command for Joint Counter Terrorism Operations and establish a new coalition force called the Northern African Anti-Terrorism Operations (NAATO). This coalition would include all of the original member of CEMOC as well as Morocco, Libya, and Tunisia, and give them full permission to pursue AQIM forces across all territories.

Economy

Algeria once relied heavily on the industry of hydrocarbon production, basing the bulk of their economy on the exportation of petroleum and other gas related products. Today, its economy has declined heavily, doling out cuts in employment, business, and even creating inflation. This is due to a multitude of factors, the first of which is the massive growth market of clean energy products in 2023, which meant that industries that relied solely on fossil fuels have began to falter steadily in favour of more energy efficient products and vehicles. Ignoring the advice of multiple analysts in 2014 to encourage more foreign investment, as well as a greater focus on agriculture, tourism, and energy production, which has been in decline since 2005, Algeria's economy has really taken a turn for the worse. A huge factor as to why Algeria has become an incredibly hard country to do business in, is its 2009 "Restrictive Investment Law" in which all Algerian companies are forced to own 51% of any venture. This, alongside huge government corruption, inefficiencies and poor intellectual property right laws have severely damaged Algeria's economy. Algeria's reserve of $190 Billion has since faltered to $39 Billion and is continuing to drop at an exponential rate. Algeria's labour force in 2012 was comprised of 11.3 Million, with an unemployment rate of 30%. This labour force is primarily comprised of those working in the government sector/services (30+%). This has changed drastically to a labour force of 7.5 million and an general unemployment rate of 45% in a recent 2029 poll.

As this video states, widespread corruption, bureaucracy and strict venture laws prevent any viable growth in the job market, as well as the economy itself. As a solution to this issue, we propose to lift the the "Restrictive Investment Law" and open the Algerian economy to the public, therefore stimulating the economy for growth, as well as appealing to the diminishing population of 41 million. After we introduce more money into the economy, Algeria should then shift a lot of its industries to energy production and agriculture, rather than focusing on the dying petroleum industry. While this might not fix  the deficit we are facing immediately, it will most likely open the door to many more opportunities in order to make the Algerian economy more fluid, and its government more transparent.

Infrastructure

As a result of the neglect placed on by the Algerian government as well as the countries' increasing deficit, Algeria's infrastructure has severely deteriorated. Algeria's last investment in infrastructure was a huge $55 Billion USD investment made in 2014 to improve roads, bridges and multiple civil engineering structures. However, due to Algeria's faltering economy, large service employment, and corrupt government, this $55 Billion dollar investment has made little difference. The economy in Algeria today has created a very large unemployment rate, therefore cutting millions of jobs in the service/government sector, specifically workers and engineers who were employed by the government in order to build and maintain these roads. The remaining workers in turn were made to stretch out the building and maintenance of the roads, pipe systems and railways, meaning an increase in the cost due to the amount of time needed. All the while, corrupt officials within the government ended up pocketing a lot of the money that was pledged towards the initial investment of $55 Billion USD. To make matters worse, a lot of infrastructure vital to the productivity of Algeria's main industry, hydrocarbons, has fallen into a rapid state of decay. Other than relying on the oil industry as their main economy, Algeria has also placed oil as their top method to providing energy to its people, with gas producing 90% of the country's electrical energy. In order to properly fix Algeria's infrastructure, we have proposed to focus on repairing the country's economic situation first so that we could have a bit of capital left. Second, we scrap the $55 Billion USD infrastructure plan, and create one that first focuses on repairing infrastructure vital to our primary industry (oil), then fix the general infrastructure such as roads and pipelines, and lastly, create a more efficient, sustainable energy source, rather than relying on one that utilizes gas.

Algeria is a nation on the brink. For years it has faced attacks from the AQIM, who we have unsuccessfully tried to put down. It has seen the deficit of a one sided economy, where its main industry can no longer sustain the country. It has experienced the literal crumbling of its cities and roads, where neglect and government corruption are put above all. Algeria implores you, the International community, to aid it in its time of need. Because if we do not do so now, it will be too late, and there will be no more nation left to stand for.

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