Math Project Comparing Estimates

Daniel Kamp February 6

Me asking the Question to my Dad.

In my project I asked 25 people what the population in Ethiopia is. I chose Ethiopia because my family and I lived there for three years. My hypothesis was that most people do not know the answer because Ethiopia is far away and is a poor country. My hypothesis was correct because 24 out of 25 people guessed too low.

One person though had a very good and close guess. As you already might have seen the real population was 91,728,849. His guess was 91,000,000! In the email though (with the answer) he also said that he normally works in Ethiopia...

Above here you can see my second part of my graph with the percents. Like many others my Dad for example, had guessed way off.

Uncle Dick had a very close guess. He was only 0.8% off the right answer.

Above you can see a scatter plot of all the guesses made by all the people.

Above you can see a scatter graph with the percents of people.

Above you can see a scatter graph with the ages and guesses of people.

In conclusion, most people guessed wrong. 24 out of 25 people guessed too low. In percentage it is 96%. 4% (one person) guessed it right, and 0% guessed too high. Even though a lot of people guessed really low, the people that had lived in Ethiopia or friends and family from them had a better guess than people that do not know anything about Ethiopia. Also I saw that age does not matter. Both young and old people guessed close or not close. Still people older than 40 guessed a tiny bit better on average. A few younger people were a bit more off. I think that because young people don't know a lot about the world yet and for them a lower number is already a lot. Older people know more about the world and also choose higher numbers.

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