Comparing Estimates
Kiran Martinez
February  26 2015

my project is comparing estimates and in this we will ask 25 people what is the population of Bulgaria and after we will find out the percent of people who were too high and the percent of people who were too low.

name       age       estimate     high or low

1. Shannon   49    1.5 million low

2. Jeff          49            4 million low

3. Mateo     13        4.3million low

4. Theresa   44        5.2 million low

5. Ron         43       1.6 million low

6. Ben       44       16 million high

7. Denise   52        32 million high

8. Don       77         13 million high

9.Julia     18      50,000 low

10. Haily    20        20  million high

11. Sofia    14        19,758 low

12. Katie    19       3 million low

13. Brian   25       5.3million low

14. Kyle    23        15,000 low

15. Nicolas    12     1.2 million low

16. Grandma   67     1 million low

17. Grandpa    74      1.5 million low

18. Lili    12         10.8 million high

19. Courtney   12      11 million high

20. Mark    12        8 million high

21. Kerry     52           25 million high

22. Tom      52            2.6 million low

23. me       12           2.3 million low

24. Erin     47            67,000 low

25. Isabell 12     700,000 low

17/25 =68% estimated too low.  Their estimates ranged below 7.2 million.

8/25=32% estimated too high. Their estimates ranged above 7.2 million.

7.2 /.05 =  5 percent of 7.2 million is 360,000

The closest person estimated 8 million.  Mark estimated closest to 7.2 million with a guess of 8 million. but was not close enough to get it right

0% of the people surveyed estimated in the range of 5% of the correct answer . If you estimated within 5 percent of 7.2 million the lowest estimate would be 6.84 million and  the highest estimate would be 7.56 million.  

Some people were close but not close enough. Some reasons that people estimated too high or too low is that they were not prepared so they just guessed the first number that came to their head.Also they might not know the size of the country and where it is located. They might not know other populations to compare it to.

Jeff estimated the number 4 million.

Julia estimated the number 50,000.

Haily estimated the number 20 million.

Brian estimated the number 5.3 million.

Grandma estimated the number 1 million.

I learned that most people under-estimate the population. I also learned that the age of the person being surveyed didn't make a difference in the accuracy of their guess.